The Day of Reckoning Cometh
Karmaphala means “the fruit of actions.” It’s synonymous with the phrase “getting what you deserve.” Or you can use my personal favorite, “Ball don’t lie.” Take one look at this season’s relegation race and you’ll be thinking about karma pretty quickly. Nuno Espiritu Santo’s West Ham sit in 18th. Two of his previous employers sit just ahead of him, Tottenham in 16th and Nottingham Forest in 17th. Based on how those clubs have been run, they deserve to be in the shadow of relegation. Their treatment of their ex-manager turned pursuer says enough.
Nuno was at Spurs for 124 days. Looking back on it, it’s hard to say if he ever had a chance. The Portuguese gaffer was chosen but somehow never wanted. His style was rejected instantly and the toxicity in North London was raging by October. Wolves’ hero was Tottenham’s nobody. He redeemed himself at Forest. He was thrown into a relegation fight with a four-point deduction to make up for. Not only did he keep them up, he made them into something great. After narrowly surviving in 2023-24, Nottingham Forest charged up the table as they qualified for the Europa League and made the FA Cup semifinals. Nuno had turned a circus into a contender.
The happy days at Forest didn’t last. Discord between Nuno and higher powers, namely, head of football Edu Gaspar and owner Evangelos Marinakis, resulted in his dismissal. Once again, Espiritu Santo was forced to rebuild. He took the job at West Ham and, despite bumps in the road, has improved the team significantly. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, have been a mess, now on their fourth manager of the season. It’s all too fitting for the season to culminate with Nuno’s team fighting the two teams that rejected him and now find themselves in trouble because they haven’t learned from their mistakes.
As funny as it would be for Spurs to be the team that goes down, they have the upper hand. They’re in 16th and, at a glance, have the easiest run-in. The average position of their home opponents down the stretch is only 13. Their matchup with Forest in a couple weeks is the wildcard that could really get them into trouble if they lose. West Ham and Forest have similar finishes to the season. Forest’s home opponents are more favorable, but their away matchups are less so. Both teams have must-win games against teams below them, too. Anything less than 3 points against Wolves and Burnley could doom them in the long-run.
West Ham has the hot hand and that gives them an edge. They have the best form of any of these three teams. In their last seven matches, they earned 11 of a possible 21 points. Comparatively, Forest have earned 6 points and Tottenham have earned 2 points over that same span. West Ham are playing with belief and quality they lacked in the first half of the year. It’s hard to tell if Spurs have even considered relegation as realistic (though they should). Meanwhile, Marinakis and Forest are banking on a successful new manager bounce with Vitor Pereira. It’s the type of gamble made by emotion rather than reason.
The odds makers give West Ham nearly a 70% percent chance to go down, Forest a 24% chance, and Tottenham only a 5% chance. I think those odds are deceiving for three reasons. First, West Ham have fluidity and familiarity that their competitors with new managers don’t yet have. Second, Nuno Espiritu Santo is a master of the defensive, counter-attacking style. And lastly, I believe in karma, and the Hammers might make a believer out of you too.