Does Defense Win Titles?

Eight games into the Premier League season, Arsenal Football Club boast an outstanding defensive record. They've only conceded three goals so far, one of them being a Dominik Szoboszlai wonder goal. Their efforts find them perched on the top of the table, three points ahead of Manchester City.

Arsenal have been on the cusp of the title for three years running. Twice bested by City and once by Liverpool, they've gone trophyless despite being one of the in-form teams in Europe. What needs to change? Or do they just see a bit of luck to finally get over the line? In considering the Gunners' situation, I decided to look back at the Premier League winners and runners-up over the last 15 years.

Arsenal's biggest strength has been their defense. In the last two seasons, they've had the best defensive record, and they look poised to do it again. In the last 15 years, the team who conceded the least number of goals has won the league seven times. Percentagewise they've lifted the trophy 47% of the time. Unsurprisingly, goals have correlated with titles more. The top goal-scoring team has won 73% of the time with five of those champions being #1 in goals scored and goals conceded.

There are only 2 outliers who secured the title with the best defense but not the best attack. Those teams were Chelsea in 2014/15 and Liverpool in 2019/20. Both teams were outscored by Manchester City but won the league by a comfortable margin. Their secret? They rarely lost. Both teams only lost 3 games and Liverpool put up a ridiculous point total of 99 points. The only problem with that is Arsenal only lost 4 games last year and weren't within touching distance of the title. That's what happens when you draw 14 games.

Arsenal's weakness lies in scoring goals. It sounds harsh but it's true. You can't win a title on set piece and defensive mastery alone. We saw it last year. Their huge set piece output tailed off, and it will again this year. They must be able to go out and get goals from open play to escape chasing teams like Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea who want their name in the hat down the stretch. The Gunners dropped tons of points last year due to their inability to break teams down and win. Especially when injuries hit, they couldn't keep output levels high.

So, does defense win titles? Not often in the Premier League...but not never. Every so often, a special team can break the trends of recent history. Do Arsenal have enough? Absolutely. Investment from the ownership has made a squad that is more prepared for deciding tight games and weathering injury crises. Players like Martin Zubimendi, Christhian Mosquera, Kepa Arrizabalaga, Viktor Gyökeres, Noni Madueke, and Eberechi Eze have solidified Arsenal's squad. Arteta expects to add players back to his group like the injured Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus as well. They are ready to weather the storm. They might not be the highest scoring team this year, especially if Erling Haaland has anything to say about it, but they have the players to decide the tight games that determine titles. They haven't been truly convincing yet but I think they'll get there. If I were an Arsenal fan, I'd dare to believe. Should they fail, at least they're not the only team in the last 15 years to be #1 in offense and defense but still come in second. Let's just say that team was a bit Spursy.